A year ago today, the TSX closed at 13,909. Today it closed at 12,145. Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up over 3% and the Dow is up close to 5%. Commodity related stocks comprise close to 50% of the TSX, but the divergence between Canadian and U.S. indices seems over done. Sure crude oil was $112 and copper was $4.23 last year at this time, but it’s not like Canadian oil and copper producers are losing money selling oil for $104 and copper at $3.78. As for gold, it is up 10% from a year ago, no need to point this out to Barrick Gold shareholders, whose stock is down almost 18% from April 26, 2011. The Canadian economy is in a much better place than it was a year ago, and clearly profits on both sides of the border are on the rise.
Those who believe in mean-reversion, take note. Your opportunity awaits.
